Oyu Tolgoi is the biggest foreign investment Mongolia’s history, but it probably won’t get any dividends from its direct stake in this massive mining project for at least another twenty years — if any at all. That’s according to a first-of-its-kind research project from the Berlin-based consultancy OpenOil, which has developed a methodology to lift the curtain on mining and energy, on a project-by-project basis. The base scenario of the model estimates the government should have received up to USD1.1 billion since the mine started up in 2010, and, depending on future market conditions, could earn many hundreds of millions of dollars a year by the 2020s. But that would be as a result principally of royalties, VAT, income tax and other revenue streams put in place when the project was signed in 2002. Meanwhile, a 34 percent direct stake in the commercial operation is unlikely to earn any extra revenues until well into the 2030s.
Source: Open Oil